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- USD/TRY lower at the open this morning with the greenback holding flat.
- Focus turns to data this week with unemployment and industrial production on the agenda for this week.
- With the cross now approaching most sell-side targets (7.00) earlier than anticipated, we may start to see more uncertainty creep in over the coming weeks.
- Recent TRY strength has been predicated on the positive monetary policy shift delivered by a hawkish Agbal, bringing policy credibility and simplicity back to the CBRT and pulling the cross from a peak at 8.57 to 7.00 (18.3%) in ~4 months.
- However, the marginal impact on TRY is easing slightly and the focus is shifting to CPI stickiness and Erdogan pressure to cut rates brewing in the wings if price pressures remain elevated.
- Price action around the 7.00 handle and below over the next 2 weeks will be a key gauge for bullish market sentiment surrounding TRY.
- Focus today on $ side factors after a relatively quiet weekend. Sup1: 7.00, Sup2: 6.8889, Res1: 7.1125, Res2: 7.1733