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TRY on the Front Foot As Exploratory Talks With Greece Loom

  • USD/TRY opens lower in line with a more positive start for risk-proxy currencies.
  • Spot now making its 5th test of the 200dma at around 7.3675, looking to make the next leg lower on a consolidated break and close below.
  • Greenback has slipped slightly at the open with selling pressure threatening to take the DXY lower.
  • Sell side, reiterating bullish TRY calls over the weekend - given its resilience to market volatility on Friday with idiosyncratic local drivers keeping TRY flows stable.
  • Focus today on Greece-Turkey exploratory talks - with few very hopeful of any meaningful change in rhetoric, despite a number of weeks of accommodative posturing towards the EU from Turkey.
  • Dissolving of talks and an overly aggressive Turkey could result in calls for expedited sanctions ahead of the EU's March review.
  • 1w vols and risk reversals showing a decline post-CBRT and little new positioning into exploratory talks.
  • Intraday Sup1: 7.3735, Sup2: 7.3675 (200dma), Sup3: 7.3109, Res1: 7.4117, Res2: 7.4498.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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