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TRY The Clear Outperformer in Early Trade

TURKEY
  • TRY the clear outperformer early Monday, with thin liquidity and light volumes due to the UK/US market holidays likely exacerbating the move.
  • USD/TRY hit all time highs on Friday at 8.6134 but has been edging lower since, with the rate now through Friday's lows and narrowing the gap with first support at 8.3968.
  • GDP data this morning has helped, with Q/Q and Y/Y figures beating expectations, but the move in TRY began in earnest well ahead of the release.
  • Inflation data later this week will prove important, with markets expecting an uptick in Y/Y CPI to 17.25% and 18.15% for the core measure. The release will feed directly into the June 17th rate decision.
  • Vol contracts covering the decision have ticked higher alongside spot last week, with three-week vol at 16.9 points at pixel time, not far off the post-Agbal lows of 14.8 points.
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