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Repost: Tsy Yields Climb Ahead Fed Chair Powell Testimony Wed

US TSYS

US Tsy yields see-saw higher upon return from Juneteenth holiday Tuesday, but scaled back moves well after the close: 30YY off morning high of 3.3922% at 3.3496% (+.0701) w/ futures off late session lows (Block 5Y buy +7,603 FVU2 at 110-12.25 helped get the ball rolling).

  • Wide range for steeper yield curves, still well off pre-FOMC levels: 2s10s +4.775 at 8.641 vs. 11.154 high, 5s10s still inverted at -8.448 (3.525) but well off early low (-12.223).
  • Limited impact from data: Existing Home Sales for May in-line: -3.4% TO 5.41M SAAR; Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.01 vs. 0.47 expected, 0.4 prior. Attention turns to Richmond Fed Barkin as he takes part in virtual moderated Q&A session w/ NABE at the top of the hour: "need to raise rates fast .. without breaking anything".
  • "I understand why some are forecasting a recession," he said in remarks prepared for a meeting of the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Va. "But the challenge in predicting a recession for tomorrow is the strength of the aggregate data today."
  • Focus on Fed Chair Powell semi-annual Senate panel testimony early Wednesday (0930ET) followed by Barkin again, Chicago Fed Evans and Philly Fed Harker.
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US Tsy yields see-saw higher upon return from Juneteenth holiday Tuesday, but scaled back moves well after the close: 30YY off morning high of 3.3922% at 3.3496% (+.0701) w/ futures off late session lows (Block 5Y buy +7,603 FVU2 at 110-12.25 helped get the ball rolling).

  • Wide range for steeper yield curves, still well off pre-FOMC levels: 2s10s +4.775 at 8.641 vs. 11.154 high, 5s10s still inverted at -8.448 (3.525) but well off early low (-12.223).
  • Limited impact from data: Existing Home Sales for May in-line: -3.4% TO 5.41M SAAR; Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.01 vs. 0.47 expected, 0.4 prior. Attention turns to Richmond Fed Barkin as he takes part in virtual moderated Q&A session w/ NABE at the top of the hour: "need to raise rates fast .. without breaking anything".
  • "I understand why some are forecasting a recession," he said in remarks prepared for a meeting of the Risk Management Association in Richmond, Va. "But the challenge in predicting a recession for tomorrow is the strength of the aggregate data today."
  • Focus on Fed Chair Powell semi-annual Senate panel testimony early Wednesday (0930ET) followed by Barkin again, Chicago Fed Evans and Philly Fed Harker.