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Tsys Angling Higher Ahead Heavy Data Slate

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys angling higher, near early London highs as rates continue to rebound from Tuesday's post-CPI data lows, curves bull flattening with the short end lagging ahead a full docket of US data.
  • Similar bull flattening moves in EGBs while off highs following wait and see tones from ECB Lagarde wanting to avoid any "hasty" decisions to cut rates with more evidence of inflation decline needed.
  • TYH4 currently +6.5 at 110-07 vs. 110-10 high on decent volumes of 340k. Initial technical resistance at 110-16 (low Feb 9) followed by 111-02.5 (20-day EMA). Support well below at 109-17/16+ (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb / Low Feb 14).
  • Heavy data ahead: Weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Import/Export pricing, NY Fed Mfg and Philly Fed Business Outlooks at 0830ET.
  • Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization up next at 0915ET followed by Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market Index at 1000ET. Total Net TIC Flows wraps things up at 1600ET.
  • Scheduled Fed speakers include Fed Gov Waller on US$ international role (text, Q&A, livestreamed) at 1315ET, followed by Atlanta Fed Bostic on monetary policy (text, Q&A) this evening at 1900ET.
  • US Treasury wraps up this week's supply with $95B 4W, $90B 8W Bill auctions at 1130ET.
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