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Tsys Breach Support, Near Lows After Mixed Jobs/Unemployment Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures remain under pressure, drifting near late session lows after this mornings mixed employment data: strong May jobs gains and up-revisions for prior two data sets, vs. a higher unemployment level - employment gains in Household were the weakest since April 2022, and the "beat" of Establishment employment (+339k) vs Household (-310k) of 649k was the widest since April 2020.
  • Front month 10Y futures broke support on it's way to session low of 113-25 (-30.5), yield climbing to 3.6984% high, key support and the bear trigger is 112-29+, the May 26 / 30 low.
  • In the short end, FOMC-dated OIS implied rates have faded from post-payrolls highs and haven’t meaningfully changed odds of a 25bp hike on Jun 14, whilst the July terminal doesn’t quite fully price in another hike with +22bps.
  • It holds sizeable increases for subsequent meetings though, with 31bp of cuts from terminal to a year-end rate of 5.00% for an effective that is just 9bp lower than current levels - see table for full run.
  • There haven’t been any Fed pop-up appearances since the data ahead of the start of the media blackout tonight, leaving markets continuing to weigh up Jefferson and Harker’s skip narrative after an inconclusive payrolls report whilst ultimately waiting on CPI on day one of the Jun 13-14 meeting. In WSJ Timiraos’ words: “A difficult one for the Fed, with many officials saying this report would be very important, because it has a "choose your narrative" element to it."
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