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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Break Below Overnight Lows, PCE Later

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures are trading lower today, and at session's worst with most contracts trading below the overnight lows. The move comes following further Trump tariffs headlines, and confirmation he will be signing more executive orders at 3pm ET time, with traders now positioning for an untick in volatility. TU is -02⅛ at 102-26+, while TY is -07 at 109-00+.
  • A bullish corrective cycle in tsys futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. 109-11+, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish with the bear trigger at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
  • Cash tsys are trading 1.5-3bps higher today, the 2yr is +1.9bps at 4.226%, while the 10yr is +2.4bps at 4.541%. The 2s20s has steepened 0.50bps to 61bps.
  • Fed-dated OIS have ~4bp of cuts priced in for March meeting and just short of 50bp by year-end
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 are steady to mildly lower vs. Thursday (*) levels as follows: Mar'25 at -3.9bp (-4.8bp), May'25 at -11.8bp (-12.9bp), Jun'25 at -22.6bp (-25.5), Jul'25 at -28bp (-30.5bp).
  • The core index of personal consumption expenditure is expected to rise 0.2% m/m last month, up from 0.1% in November, economists forecast.
  • Later today we have Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index & MNI Chicago PMI, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak
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  • Tsys futures are trading lower today, and at session's worst with most contracts trading below the overnight lows. The move comes following further Trump tariffs headlines, and confirmation he will be signing more executive orders at 3pm ET time, with traders now positioning for an untick in volatility. TU is -02⅛ at 102-26+, while TY is -07 at 109-00+.
  • A bullish corrective cycle in tsys futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. 109-11+, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish with the bear trigger at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
  • Cash tsys are trading 1.5-3bps higher today, the 2yr is +1.9bps at 4.226%, while the 10yr is +2.4bps at 4.541%. The 2s20s has steepened 0.50bps to 61bps.
  • Fed-dated OIS have ~4bp of cuts priced in for March meeting and just short of 50bp by year-end
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 are steady to mildly lower vs. Thursday (*) levels as follows: Mar'25 at -3.9bp (-4.8bp), May'25 at -11.8bp (-12.9bp), Jun'25 at -22.6bp (-25.5), Jul'25 at -28bp (-30.5bp).
  • The core index of personal consumption expenditure is expected to rise 0.2% m/m last month, up from 0.1% in November, economists forecast.
  • Later today we have Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index & MNI Chicago PMI, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak