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Tsys Futures Close Near Session Lows, Daly Echoes Powell

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures erased the small gains made during the Asian session and see-sawed lower on narrow range after Core durable goods orders were softer than expected in preliminary July data, falling -0.1% M/M (cons 0.1) after a downward revised 0.5% (initial 0.9%). Futures furthers extended losses late in the session after SF Fed Daly sounding a little more cautious over pace/size of rate cuts while generally echoing Chairman Powell's "the time is now" opinion from Jackson Hole.
  • TYU4 closed the session -0-03+ at 113-19, while TUU4 closed -0-01⅛ at 103-10¾, we have opened trading in Asia largely in line.
  • Cash treasury curves bear-flattened on Monday, yields were 1-3bps higher, with the 2yr yield -2.0bps to 3.936%, while the 10yr yield was +1.7bps at 3.816% just above the yearly lows made Thursday of 3.7858%, the 2s10s was little changed closing at -12.188
  • Judging from a Bloomberg TV interview this afternoon, SF Fed Pres Daly (2024 FOMC voter) doesn't seem to be a proponent of an outsized 50bp rate cut in September. (Read full analysis here)
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey improved by more than expected to -9.7 (cons -16.0) in August from -17.5, still firmly negative but its highest level since Jan 2023.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end near steady vs. to late Friday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.2bp (-33.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -68.8bp (-68.8bp), Dec'24 -103.7bp (-103.1bp).
  • Today, we have housing Data, Consumer Confidence, regional Fed data from Dallas and Richmond Fed.
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