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Tsys Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Sintra, 2s10s Off Recent Highs

US TSYS
  • Tsys futures have edged higher ahead of speeches at Sintra from Fed officials later today, TUU4 +0-01⅛ at 102-01⅛, while TYU4 +0-06 at 109-11+.
  • Volumes are slightly above recent averages with TU 20k, FV 44k & TY 90k
  • Tsys Flows: Post the US close/ prior to Asia open there was a large a large 15,988k FVU4 block trade, likely buyer at 106-05.25, while earlier there was likely block buyer of 5,839 UXY at sessions highs of 102-19.
  • Cash treasury curve has seen slightly better buying through the 7-10yr part of the curve, yields are flat to 2bps lower, the 2s10s is off overnight highs of -28.679, and is now -1.357 at -31.207.
  • A Trump presidency is looking likely based on currently polling (PredictIt now has odds at 59%, up 1% today), with investors believing this would lead to higher spending, tax cuts, and faster inflation. Furthermore, the US Supreme court ruled Trump has immunity from some criminal charges, which now shuts the small window for Trump to be put in front of a jury before the Election on Nov 5.
  • In APAC markets, ACGB yields are 2-6bps higher, curve bear-steepening, NZGB yields 2.5bps lower to 4bps higher, curve bear-steepening. JGBs are flat to 2bps higher, better selling through the belly of the curve post the 10yr auction later
  • Looking ahead, May JOLTS Job openings, Goolsbee to speak on BBG TV while Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra
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