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Tsys Futures Edge Higher, Curve Bull-Flattens

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures finished near session highs the Fed Beige Book for July supportive amid expectations of slower economic growth tied to election uncertainty, domestic policy, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Fed speak from Richmond Fed Barkin and Fed Gov Waller leaned dovish. “While I don’t believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted,” Waller said.
  • TUU4 closed +0-00¾ at 102-20¼ while TYU4 closed +0-03+ at 111-14, we have opened Asia trading little changed.
  • A bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce the current set-up. Short-term pullbacks are proving to be corrective. Initial support sits at 110-15+ (20-day EMA) with a break here opening a move to 110-03 (50-day EMA). To the upside, initial resistance sits at 111-15 (July 17th highs) above here 111-31 (1.382 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing)
  • The cash treasury curve slightly bull-flattened the 2y yield was +2.1bps at 4.438% while the remainder of the curve was flat to 0.5bps higher with the 2s10s closing -2.078 at -28.248.
  • Data: MBA Mortgage Applications was 3.9% up from -0.2% prior, this was the highest reading since August 2022. Housing Starts were 1353k vs 1300k est, Building Permits were 1446k vs1400k est, while Industrial Production was 0.60% m/m vs 0.30% est.
  • projected rate cut pricing into year end slightly cooler vs. late Tuesday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.7bp (-26.6bp), Nov'24 cumulative -41.1bp (-42.9bp), Dec'24 -63.6bp (-65.4bp).
  • Focus turns Weekly Claims, 10Y TIPS Sale & TIC Flows.
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