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Free AccessTsys Futures Edge Higher On Low Volumes, Curve Flattens
- Treasury futures have edged higher throughout the session, with the long-end slightly out-performing after lagging the recovery heading into NY close overnight. Volumes are well down on averages while TU is + 00⅜ at 102-14⅜ and TY is + 03+ at 110-26+.
- Tsys flows: Buyer block 6,061 UXY at 114-11 & Block Steepener DV01 318k TU/UXY
- The treasury curve has bull-flattened throughout the session with the 2yr -0.7bps at 4.510% and the 10yr -1.4bps at 4.239%. The past week has seen the treasury curve move about 9bps wider with the 2s10s little changed at -27bps over the week after rallying from -43bps in July.
- The 1yr USD Inflation Swap is trading near yearly lows at 1.9175, falling 51bps since July 1, futures markets are pricing in just under 2.5 cuts into year-end.
- Projected rate cut pricing into year end has receded vs. early Monday levels (*): July'24 at -2.5% w/ cumulative at -0.6bp at 5.323%, Sep'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-25bp), Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-39.5bp), Dec'24 -60.7bp (-62bp)
- looking ahead today we have Regional Fed and Existing Home Sales data and $69B 2Y Note auction.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.