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Tsys Futures Edge Higher On Low Volumes, Curve Flattens

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have edged higher throughout the session, with the long-end slightly out-performing after lagging the recovery heading into NY close overnight. Volumes are well down on averages while TU is + 00⅜ at 102-14⅜ and TY is + 03+ at 110-26+.
  • Tsys flows: Buyer block 6,061 UXY at 114-11 & Block Steepener DV01 318k TU/UXY
  • The treasury curve has bull-flattened throughout the session with the 2yr -0.7bps at 4.510% and the 10yr -1.4bps at 4.239%. The past week has seen the treasury curve move about 9bps wider with the 2s10s little changed at -27bps over the week after rallying from -43bps in July.
  • The 1yr USD Inflation Swap is trading near yearly lows at 1.9175, falling 51bps since July 1, futures markets are pricing in just under 2.5 cuts into year-end.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end has receded vs. early Monday levels (*): July'24 at -2.5% w/ cumulative at -0.6bp at 5.323%, Sep'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-25bp), Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-39.5bp), Dec'24 -60.7bp (-62bp)
  • looking ahead today we have Regional Fed and Existing Home Sales data and $69B 2Y Note auction.
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