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Tsys Futures Edge Higher Through Asia Session, Volumes Light

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have edged higher throughout the session, slowly clawing back the weakness made overnight after lower-than-expected jobless claims. There has been some block buying in the FV contract, and a block steepener trade a moment ago.
  • TUU4 is +0-01¾ at 103-09 while TYU4 + 08 at 112-29.
  • The cash treasury curve has bull-steepened today with yields 2-4bps lower. The 2yr is -3.3bps at 4.005%, while the 10yr is -2.5bps at 3.963%.
  • The moves lower in yields could have also been helped by dovish comments from the Fed's Schmid & Goolsbee.
  • Overnight the recent 30-year Treasury bond auction drew a yield of 4.314%, which was 3.1bps higher than the pre-sale yield of 4.283%, the tail is outside the normal range for long-bond auctions since 2020, marking it as the 7th worst monthly long-bond auction since the start of COVID-19. This follows a similarly poor outcome in the previous day's 10-year note auction.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end off early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.5bp (-44.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -71.5bp (-77.6bp), Dec'24 -103.2bp (-109.3bp).
  • Today, it is a very empty calendar with no data or fed speak.
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