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Tsys Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of US Holiday, 2Y10Y at YTD Lows

US TSYS
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  • Treasury futures are a touch lower today ahead of the public holiday in the US later with cash trading closed for the day. TUU4 is -0-01 at 102-07⅛ vs a high of 102-07⅝, while TYU4 is - 03 at 110-22+ vs a high of 110-24.
  • The 2y10y hit new ytd lows overnight, now trading at -49.569.
  • Volumes are on the low side today; TU 13k, FV 20k, TY 39k
  • APAC markets: ACGB curve has bear-flattened, yields are 1-5bps higher, NZGB curve bull-flattened, yields are 2-5bps lower. JGB curve has bear-steepened yield are +/- 2bps, BOJ’s April minutes showed board members discussed a futures reduction in the central bank’s bond purchases
  • China has has increased their US Treasury holdings in April, ending a three month decrease, while Japan decreased their holdings.
  • Projected rate cut pricing regaining momentum (but still off Friday highs). Post-Retail Sales vs. pre-data: July'24 steady at -8% w/ cumulative at -2bp at 5.307%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.1bp (-16.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.8bp (-25.3bp), Dec'24 -48.3bp (-44.5bp).
  • Looking ahead, MBA Mortgage Applications
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  • Treasury futures are a touch lower today ahead of the public holiday in the US later with cash trading closed for the day. TUU4 is -0-01 at 102-07⅛ vs a high of 102-07⅝, while TYU4 is - 03 at 110-22+ vs a high of 110-24.
  • The 2y10y hit new ytd lows overnight, now trading at -49.569.
  • Volumes are on the low side today; TU 13k, FV 20k, TY 39k
  • APAC markets: ACGB curve has bear-flattened, yields are 1-5bps higher, NZGB curve bull-flattened, yields are 2-5bps lower. JGB curve has bear-steepened yield are +/- 2bps, BOJ’s April minutes showed board members discussed a futures reduction in the central bank’s bond purchases
  • China has has increased their US Treasury holdings in April, ending a three month decrease, while Japan decreased their holdings.
  • Projected rate cut pricing regaining momentum (but still off Friday highs). Post-Retail Sales vs. pre-data: July'24 steady at -8% w/ cumulative at -2bp at 5.307%, Sep'24 cumulative -18.1bp (-16.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.8bp (-25.3bp), Dec'24 -48.3bp (-44.5bp).
  • Looking ahead, MBA Mortgage Applications