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Tsys Futures Edge Lower Post The Bell, Flash PMIs Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures finished Thursday's session weaker but off morning lows, recovering ground after inexplicably reversing post-data strength. TUU4 ended -0-01¾ at 102-06⅜ and we have opened another -0-00⅝ lower this morning, while TYU4 was -0-08 at 110-17+, we have opened down another -0-02 at 110-15+.
  • A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play despite modest weakness posted Thursday and the contract continues to trade just below its recent highs, technical levels to watch for TYU4 are; Support at 109-23+ (50-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 109-00+ (Jun 10 low), to the upside, resistance lays at 111-01 (June 14 high) a break here would open a move to 111-09 (Apr 1 high)
  • Cash treasury curve bear-steepened on Thursday with yields 2-5bps higher. The 2Y finished +2.5bps at 4.737%, 5Y +3.1bps at 4.275% while the 10Y was +3.7bps at 4.259%, the 2y10y is off ytd lows finished the session +1.367 at -48.202
  • Data: Housing Starts (1.277M vs. 1.37M est), MoM (-5.5% vs. 0.7% est), Building Permits (1.386M vs. 1.45M est), MoM (-3.8% vs. 0.7% est). Weekly Claims a little higher than expected at 238k vs. 235k est, continuing claims 1.828M vs. 1.810M est.
  • Looking ahead, S&P Flash PMIs, Leading Index, Home Sales.
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