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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edges Lower Ahead Of US CPI

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures are weaker ahead of US CPI later today, US consumer prices excluding food and energy probably rose 0.3% m/m last month, the same as in October, with expectations of another 0.3% reading today, while headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6% in October.
  • Ranges have been narrow and we currently trades within yesterday's levels across all contracts. TU is -00¾ at 103-02 and trading at session lows, TY is -04 at 110-28, just off lows of 110-27+.
  • Cash tsys curves have bear-flattened, yields are 0.5-1.5bps higher across the curve. The 2yr is +1.4bps at 4.157%, 10yr is +1bps at 4.236%. The 2s10s is little changed at 7.433, off overnight highs of 9.321.
  • Fed fund futures are currently pricing in 21.5bps of cuts for next weeks meeting, or a 86% chance of a 25bps cut. January is pricing in 27.4bps of cumulative cuts, while not until May is the market expecting another full cut, with 52.3bps currently priced.
  • Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent said he is “in complete agreement” with President-elect Trump that Fed Chair Jay Powell will serve out his full term.
  • There will be a $39b Tsys auction of a November 2034 notes later today. While on the data front, first we have MBA mortgage Applications, although all eyes will be on CPI shortly after.
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  • Tsys futures are weaker ahead of US CPI later today, US consumer prices excluding food and energy probably rose 0.3% m/m last month, the same as in October, with expectations of another 0.3% reading today, while headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.6% in October.
  • Ranges have been narrow and we currently trades within yesterday's levels across all contracts. TU is -00¾ at 103-02 and trading at session lows, TY is -04 at 110-28, just off lows of 110-27+.
  • Cash tsys curves have bear-flattened, yields are 0.5-1.5bps higher across the curve. The 2yr is +1.4bps at 4.157%, 10yr is +1bps at 4.236%. The 2s10s is little changed at 7.433, off overnight highs of 9.321.
  • Fed fund futures are currently pricing in 21.5bps of cuts for next weeks meeting, or a 86% chance of a 25bps cut. January is pricing in 27.4bps of cumulative cuts, while not until May is the market expecting another full cut, with 52.3bps currently priced.
  • Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent said he is “in complete agreement” with President-elect Trump that Fed Chair Jay Powell will serve out his full term.
  • There will be a $39b Tsys auction of a November 2034 notes later today. While on the data front, first we have MBA mortgage Applications, although all eyes will be on CPI shortly after.