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Tsys Futures Extend Gains Post Data Friday, 10Y Back to Mid-Feb CPI Levels

US TSYS
Treasury futures pushed higher post data on Friday, closing back at Feb 15 levels after markets take the latest round of data as supportive of softer policy as inflation metrics cool. As trading gets underway in Asia futures are opening slightly lower down - 01+ to 110-31+
  • Jun'24 10Y futures closed the week at 111-01, pushing higher after data releases. Futures have broken above initial resistance of 110-26+ (20-day EMA) with next resistance level at 111-07 (50-day EMA).
  • Treasury yields were 5-9bps lower across the curve, with the 2Y yield 9bps lower to 4.531%, the 10y 8bps lower to 4.18, while the 2y10y was +2.52 at -34.543.
  • Curves steeper 2s10s +2.520 at -34.543, 10Y yield 4.1798 (-.0704).
  • Data out Friday - lower than expected ISM Mfg (47.8 vs. 49.5 est), Prices Paid (52.5 vs. 53.2 est) and New Orders (49.2 vs. 52.7 est); as well as U. of Mich. Sentiment (76.9 vs. 79.6 est) while expectations are in line with estimates: 1 Yr Inflation (3.0% vs. 3.0% est) 5-10 Yr Inflation (2.9% vs. 2.9% est)
  • Short end support buoyed Mid-year projected rate cut pricing: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -5.4% w/ cumulative of -1.4bp at 5.318%; May 2024 at -24.8% vs. -18.4% late Thursday w/ cumulative -7.6bp at 5.255%; June 2024 -67.9% from -56.4% late Thursday is nearing first full 25bp cut w/ cumulative cut -24.5bp at 5.086%. July'24 cumulative meanwhile has risen to -40.4bp at 4.927%.
  • Looking ahead: data resumes Tuesday with S&P Global US Services PMI, ISM Services, Factory and Durable Goods Orders.
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