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Tsys Futures Little Changed, Curve Bear-Flattens

US TSYS
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  • Treasury futures gave back all the post NY close moves in the first half of the session today, we have since traded sideways in tight ranges. TUU4 is -0-0⅛ lower at 102-19⅝, while TYU4 is back to unchanged from NY closing levels but -0-03 from the morning highs at 111-10.
  • Cash treasury curve has bear-flattened today, yields are 0.5-2bps cheaper.
  • The 2s10s curve made new highs overnight of -20.680 on the back of stronger-than-expected retail sales, we now trade 7bps lower at -27.5bps.
  • US futures are pricing a 6.5% chance of a rate cut in July and 100% chance of a cut in September for a cumulative cut of 26.6bps.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end remains slightly cooler vs. late Monday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.5bp), Nov'24 cumulative -42.9bp (-44.1bp), Dec'24 -65.4bp (-65.8bp).
  • Focus turns to Wednesday's Build Permits, House Starts, Beige Book, Tsy 20Y Bond auction reopen
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  • Treasury futures gave back all the post NY close moves in the first half of the session today, we have since traded sideways in tight ranges. TUU4 is -0-0⅛ lower at 102-19⅝, while TYU4 is back to unchanged from NY closing levels but -0-03 from the morning highs at 111-10.
  • Cash treasury curve has bear-flattened today, yields are 0.5-2bps cheaper.
  • The 2s10s curve made new highs overnight of -20.680 on the back of stronger-than-expected retail sales, we now trade 7bps lower at -27.5bps.
  • US futures are pricing a 6.5% chance of a rate cut in July and 100% chance of a cut in September for a cumulative cut of 26.6bps.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end remains slightly cooler vs. late Monday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.5bp), Nov'24 cumulative -42.9bp (-44.1bp), Dec'24 -65.4bp (-65.8bp).
  • Focus turns to Wednesday's Build Permits, House Starts, Beige Book, Tsy 20Y Bond auction reopen