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Tsys Futures Lower Following US Data, Focus Turning To Powell Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures did very little during Asia on Thursday, before slowly trending lower heading into the US session, the Fed's Schmid said "I want to be thoughtful about it,” and see the Sept data before making further decisions on rate cuts, Jobless Claims were mostly in line with expectations but did cause tsys to sell off a touch which was then further help by mixed S&P Global PMI data which caused tsys futures to trades into session lows.
  • TYU4 closed the session -0-19+ at 113-09+, while TUU4 closed -0-05¾ at 103-06⅝, we have opened trading in Asia largely in line.
  • Cash treasury curves bear-steepened, yields were 4-8bps higher with the 2yr yield +7.3bps to 4.004%%, while the 10yr yield was +5.1bps at 3.852% and now trades 10bps of yearly lows made Wednesday, the 2s10s closed -2.209 at -15.563.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end have cooled vs. early Thursday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -31.3bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -63.1bp (-67.2bp), Dec'24 -96.7bp (-100.4bp).
  • Today the focus will be on J Powell speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 ET, we also have New home sales.
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