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Tsys Futures Pare Gains, ISM Services Slightly Higher

US TSYS
  • Tsys futures gave back most of Monday's gains as we ended trading. Short end support evaporated following mildly higher than expected ISM Services in July at 51.4 (cons 51.0), confirming a return above 50 after what had been the lowest since early in the pandemic.
  • Futures are a touch lower as we open trading on Tuesday, TUU4 is -01 3/8 at 103-16 3/8, while TYU4 is - 00+ at 114-02
  • Looking at US 10y techs, initial resistance sits at 115-01 (Overnight/Aug 5 highs), while we trade comfortably above initial support of 112-21 (August 2 lows)
  • Cash treasury curve twist flattened on Monday, yields were +/- 4bps. The 2y hit a low of 3.645% before closing +4bps at 3.92%, while the 10yr hit a low of 3.665% before closing -0.2bp at 3.788%.
  • The 2s10s curve was briefly no longer inverted, hitting 1.475 before reversing those moves to close the session -4.238 at -13.5882.
  • Services PMI revised down to 55.0 (flash and cons 56.0) for a modest decline from 55.3 in June. Composite PMI revised down to 54.3 (flash 55.0) for a slightly larger decline from 54.8 in June, while there was little reaction to the Federal Reserve Board's Sr Loan Officer Loan Survey (SLOOS).
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end ease vs. early morning levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -49.9bp (-54.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -86.5bp (-95.9bp), Dec'24 -118.6bp (-128.1bp).
  • Today we have Trade Balance & Tsy 3Y Note Sale. Markets will also be watching for VP Harris Democratic nominee's choice of Vice President.
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