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Tsys Futures Rally After Prior Jobs Revised Down, Yields 5-10bps Lower

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures briefly gapped lower in response to mildly higher than expected June jobs gain of +206k vs. +190k est - but quickly reversed course, extending session highs after prior jobs data was down revised. TUU4 finished +0-05¾ at 102-10⅝ while TYU4 closed +0-18 at 110-19+, as trading gets underway for the week, we have opened a touch lower, with TYU4 -0-02 at 110-17+.
  • There was a small beat in NFP coming in a 206k vs 190k est, but with a return of heavy downward revisions. Two-month -111k, split evenly over May and April. While the unemployment rate was stronger than expected as it increased to 4.05% in June (cons 4.0 with some skew to a 3.9 print). The 4.1 rounding on screens exaggerates the increase, but it's another 0.1pp increase from 3.96% in May and 3.86% in April.
  • The Cash treasury curve bull-steepened on Friday, with yields 5-10bps lower. The 2y closed -10.3bps at 4.604%, 7yr -9.4bps at 4.229%, while the 10y -8bps at 4.278%. The 2s10s was +2.408 at -32.935.
  • Looking ahead, NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations & Consumer Credit.
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