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Tsys Futures Rally, Curve Bull-Flattens On Risk-Off Session

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures did very little heading into the US session, before surging higher following a sharp pullback in oil prices (WTI down more than 4% on the day) as well as soft data including construction activity and ISM Manufacturing.
  • Equities also fell overnight with (Nasdaq futures -3.4% vs -2.4% in S&P eminis) after the like of Nvidia fell 9.50% on the back of being subpoenaed by the DOJ, while the SOX Index fell 7.75%.
  • It was reported that Tuesday was the single largest day of corporate issuance on report, with about 25 deal printing, this could have limited further upside in tsys futures.
  • TUZ4 closed +0-02¼ at 103-27 while TYZ4 closed +0-14 at 114-00.
  • Cash treasury curves bull-flattened with yields 5-7.5bps lower. The 2yr closed -5.3bps at 3.863, while the 10yr closed -7.2bps at 3.831% the 2s10s is hovering near positive territory at -3.413.
  • Projected rate cut pricing through year end has firmed 1-2bps vs. Friday close levels: Sep'24 cumulative -34.8bp (-33.0bp), Nov'24 cumulative -67.7bp (-66.4bp), Dec'24 -101.9bp (-99.7bp)
  • The major focus this week is on Nonfarms on Friday, later today we will get Trade Balance, MBA Mortgage Applications & JOLTS job openings, while Bank Of Canada rate decision will also be watched.

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