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Tsys Futures Rangebound, Building Permits Miss, UofM Firmer

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures sold off on the back of weak housing starts & building permit data on Friday, hitting session lows before slowly edging back into the green towards the close.
  • Front-end outperformed slightly with TUU4 + 01+ to 103-04⅛, while TYU4 + 05+ to 113-03+.
  • Cash treasury curves bull-steepened with yields 2-5bps lower. The 2yr yield was +4.3bps to 4.050%, while the 10yr yield was -3bps at 3.883%. The 2s10s was +1.273 at -17.134
  • U.Mich Long-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Anchored Around 3% inflation expectations were a tenth stronger than expected for both 1Y (2.9%) and 5-10Y (2.9%) measures but remain in recent ranges.
  • The state household survey data showed another decline in the share of states that have triggered the Sahm Rule threshold, down to 30% in July from 34% in June and 42% in May. (See link)
  • Projected rate cuts into year end vs. this mornings pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.8bp (-33.8bp), Nov'24 cumulative -64.2bp (-62.0bp), Dec'24 -96.8bp (-93.5bp).
  • Looking ahead, the Fed's Waller to speak, Democratic Convention & Leading Index
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