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Tsys Futures Steady Ahead Of GDP & Jobless Claims

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have traded in tight ranges today, ahead of US GDP due out later tonight. Volumes have been light today and largely roll related.
  • TUU4 is trading + 00⅜ at 103-11⅝, while the TYU4 is - 00+ at 113-16+.
  • Cash treasury curve is little changed, there has been slightly better buying in the 3yr & 5yr tenors, with yields flat to 0.5bp lower across the curve. The 10yr is unchanged at 3.835% The 2s10s curve is almost back to flat at -3.423.
  • The Fed's Bostic suggested it "may be time to cut" interest rates next month, though he remains cautious, emphasizing the need for more data before making a decision. Bostic's stance has shifted to consider earlier rate cuts after inflation fell more quickly than expected, a point he reiterated from last week's Jackson Hole conference.
  • Projected rate cut pricing through year end has gained vs. early Wednesday levels: Sep'24 cumulative -33.8bp (-33.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -66.9bp (-66.9bp), Dec'24 -102.1bp (-103.8bp)
  • Today, we have US GDP revisions and weekly jobless claims, as well as the final Treasury coupon supply of the month in the form of 7Y Note.
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