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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady Ahead Of PCE Data

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures are trading steady today as investors await the release of US core PCE data, after the Fed signaled concern over the risk of inflation pressure facing the economy. TU is 00+ at 102-22⅝ while TY is +04 at 108-23+.
  • A bearish short-term theme in Treasury futures remains intact and Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current trend condition. The TY contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-13, the 20-day EMA.
  • The Republican-led House rejected a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump with just over 24 hours to go before a US government shutdown, while the new proposed bill has so far been unable to gain enough votes to pass,
  • Cash tsys are trading flat to 1.5bps lower so far today, with the 5 & 7yr tenors outperforming. The 2yr is trading -1.1bps at 4.306%, while the 10yr is -0.6bps at 4.490%, the 2s10s remains near its steepest levels since June 2022 at +24bps.
  • Fed Fund futures are pricing in no further cuts until July, when there is 28.4bps of cut priced, and only 38bps of cuts priced through to December 2025.
  • Friday's schedule includes the November PCE report and the final December UMichigan survey, while we also get the first post-FOMC meeting commentary with SF's Daly and NY's Williams appearing in the morning.
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  • Tsys futures are trading steady today as investors await the release of US core PCE data, after the Fed signaled concern over the risk of inflation pressure facing the economy. TU is 00+ at 102-22⅝ while TY is +04 at 108-23+.
  • A bearish short-term theme in Treasury futures remains intact and Wednesday’s move lower reinforces the current trend condition. The TY contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-13, the 20-day EMA.
  • The Republican-led House rejected a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump with just over 24 hours to go before a US government shutdown, while the new proposed bill has so far been unable to gain enough votes to pass,
  • Cash tsys are trading flat to 1.5bps lower so far today, with the 5 & 7yr tenors outperforming. The 2yr is trading -1.1bps at 4.306%, while the 10yr is -0.6bps at 4.490%, the 2s10s remains near its steepest levels since June 2022 at +24bps.
  • Fed Fund futures are pricing in no further cuts until July, when there is 28.4bps of cut priced, and only 38bps of cuts priced through to December 2025.
  • Friday's schedule includes the November PCE report and the final December UMichigan survey, while we also get the first post-FOMC meeting commentary with SF's Daly and NY's Williams appearing in the morning.