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Tsys Futures Steady, Fed's Daly Says No Urgency To Cut

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have been relatively stable on Tuesday, as Asian Equities and FX sell off during the session. There have also been a few block steepener trades going through. The 10Y contract trades at 107-30+ (+ 02) from NY closing level, after earlier making a high of 108-04 and we still comfortably hold above initial support at 107-16+ (2.50 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing), while to the upside resistance holds at 108.25+ (Apr 12 high).
  • Cash Treasuries have done very little today with yields flat to 1bps higher the 2Y yield +0.5 at 4.925%, 10Y +0.8bp to 4.610%, while the 2y10y is unchanged at -31.975
  • Across the local markets curves are following UST and bear steepening with ACGBs yields 2-6bps higher, NZGBs are 5-8bps higher, while in the EM space INDON 10Y rose to highest levels since November at 6.82%
  • Projected rate cut pricing recedes: May 2024 at -4.7% w/ cumulative -1.2bp at 5.317%; June 2024 at -19.8% vs. -22.6% (compares to -55.1% pre-CPI) w/ cumulative rate cut -6.1bp at 5.286%. July'24 cumulative at -14.4bp vs -16.9bp earlier, Sep'24 cumulative -25.9bp vs. -28.8bp.
  • (MNI) MNI BRIEF: Fed's Daly Reiterates No Urgency To Cut Rates (See link)
  • Looking ahead: Building Permits, IP/Cap-U, and Fed Speak with Chairman Powell moderating a Q&A session with BoC head Macklem.
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