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Tsys Futures Steady On Powell's Comments

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures traded slightly lower on Tuesday, in what was a largely uneventful session, there was some volatility during Powell's semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate.
  • Futures gapped higher on dovish comments, "It doesn't seem likely that the next policy move would be a rate increase," although support evaporated when Powell said "Committee has stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%."
  • TYU4 closed -0-06 at 110-13 while TUU4 closed -0-00⅞ at 102-08¾ we have opened little changed Wednesday.
  • Treasuries are trading closer to their recent highs, however, key short-term resistance at 111-01 - the June 14th high, remains intact for now. A bear threat is present while this resistance holds. Initial support rests at 109-28 (50-day EMA), a break here would open a move to 109-02+ (Jul 1 low), while to the upside 110-20+ (July 8 high) a break here would see us test 111-01 (June 14 high and the bull trigger)
  • The Cash treasury curve bear-flattened on Tuesday, with yields -1bp to +2.5bps. The 2y closed -0.2bps at 4.626%, 7yr +1.3bps at 4.250%, while the 10y was +1.8bps at 4.296%. The 2s10s was +2.180 at -33.258.
  • Looking ahead, MBA Mortgage Applications & Wholesale Inventories
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