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Tsys Head Higher On Rate Cut Expectations, ADP Private Jobs later

US TSYS

Treasury futures were higher on Tuesday, although finished slightly off session highs amid late position squaring ahead Wednesday's ADP private employment data risk, a precursor to Friday's headline employment report.

  • Treasuries maintain a firmer short-term tone following the recovery from last week’s 107-31 low (May 29). Looking at technical levels, initial support is at 109-00+ (20-day EMA), with the 107-31 (May 29 low) the next target, while to the upside initial resistance is at 110-05 (June 5 high), a break here would see a test of 110-09 (May 16 highs/ bull trigger)
  • Cash treasury curve bull-flattened again on Tuesday, yields were 3-7bps lower, the 2Y -3.8bps to 4.770%, the 10Y -6.2bps at 4.326% while the 2y10y was -2.285 at -44.455.
  • On the Data front: JOLTS Job Openings (8.059M vs. 8.350M est, 8.488M prior) -- lowest since Feb 2021. Meanwhile, Factory Orders little stronger (0.7% vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prior rev), Ex Transportation (0.7% vs. 0.5% est, 0.4% prior rev); Durable Goods Orders in-line/firmer (0.6% vs. 0.7% est), Ex Transportation (0.4% vs. 0.4% est); Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air softer (0.2% vs. 0.3% est).
  • Late year rate cut projections continue to gain vs. late Monday levels (*): June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -16% w/ cumulative at -4.3bp at 5.288%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.3bp (-17.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.8bp (-25.3bp), Dec'24 -44.3bp (-40.6bp).
  • Looking ahead; MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, S&P Global US PMI & ISM Services Index
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