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Tsys Hug Lows, Policy Makers Wary of Cutting Too Soon

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are holding moderately weaker, taking cues from core/semi-core EGBs again overnight as officials maintain hawkish vigil over inflation. ECB Lagarde data dependent and will wait for sustainable disinflation, Schnabel noted the "last mile" of disinflation may be the hardest.
  • Mar'24 10Y futures tested Thursday lows overnight on heavier volumes (TYH4>500k) tied to the roll to Jun'24 contract. TYH4 currently -3 at 109-13 vs 109-09 low, next technical support level at 109-05.5 (Low Nov 28). Curves flatter: 2s10s near early January level at -39.600 (-0.281), 10Y yield at 4.3367% (+.0160) - early Dec'23 level.
  • Projected rate cuts continue to consolidate vs. early Thursday levels: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -2.0% vs. -6.8% early Thursday w/ cumulative of -0.5bp at 5.324%; May 2024 at -21.2% vs. -27.7% earl Thu w/ cumulative -5.8bp at 5.271%; June 2024 -55.4% vs. -61.5% early Thu w/ cumulative cut -19.7bp at 5.132%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
  • Today's data is limited to Bloomberg's US Economic Survey for February at 0900ET.
  • No scheduled Fed speakers, nor US Treasury auctions. Auctions pick up in earnest on Monday due to the short month: $63B 2Y note and $70B 26W bills at 1130ET, followed by $79B 13W bills and $64B 5Y Note auctions.
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