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Tsys Ignore Stronger than Expected Housing Starts Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures had sold off briefly this morning after stronger than expected Housing starts 1.631M vs. 1.4M est (1.401M prior); permits 1.491M vs. 1.425M est. Rates quickly bounced as they tracked first Gilts then Bunds earlier after German 10Y yield fell 10.9bp, the largest down-move since April 28.
  • Front month 10Y Treasury futures near last Thursday's post-weekly claims highs, are currently trading +9.5 at 113-11 vs. session high of 113-17. Initial firm resistance is at 114-00, the Jun 13 high, followed by 114-06+ / 114-17 High Jun 6 / 50-day EMA.
  • No significant change in rate hike expectations with short end SOFR futures holding weaker. Market confidence of a hike at the July 26 FOMC is appr 70% with an implied rate of +17.3bp to 5.258%, September and November pricing in appr 86% with cumulative of +22.5bp and 21.0 respectively at 5.3-5.295%. Dec'23 cumulative running near 12bp at 5.205%, Fed terminal at 5.30% in Oct'23 and Nov'23 at the moment.
  • Focus turns to Fed Chairman Powell semi-annual testimony House Services Panel tomorrow at 1000ET, though it's unlikely Chair Powell will deviate from last week's policy messaging.
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