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Tsys Off 10D Lows Ahead Nov CPI Inflation Report

US TSYS
Modest gains across most of the curve, 2s weaker after the bell, bonds near session highs. Tsy futures bounced off levels last seen in late November (30YY tapped 1.9011% high, 1.8579% last) as Asian real$ bought early overnight lows in 10s and 30s, while prop and real$ bought 5s-10s during early London hours, some light curve flatteners in short end.
  • Tsy futures pared gains after lower than est weekly claims: 184k vs. 220k est -- lowest since 1969 BLS reports! Bonds maintained a bid on two-way trade into the bond auction.
  • Tsys gap lower after second consecutive weak $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810TB4) large tail:1.895% high yield vs. 1.863% WI; 2.22x bid-to-cover better than 2.20x last month (2.29x 5-month average). Indirect take-up 60.80% vs. Nov's 59.00%; direct bidder take-up 18.49% vs. 15.78% prior, while primary dealer take-up recedes to 20.71% vs. 25.23%.
  • Focus turns to Fri's headline CPI. Barring a very large miss, Nov inflation report is unlikely to change analysts' views that the Fed will accelerate taper at next Wed's meeting to give it rate hike optionality early next year.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.6797%, 5-Yr is down 2.4bps at 1.25%, 10-Yr is down 3.8bps at 1.4836%, and 30-Yr is down 2.7bps at 1.8661%.
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