Free Trial

Tsys Off Lows on Geopol Tension Ahead March FOMC Minutes

US TSY FUTURES
  • Treasury futures bounce off post-10Y auction lows after Bbg headline: "US SEES MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL BY IRAN, PROXIES AS IMMINENT".
  • Carry-over from late last Thursday when Tsys surged on heavy risk-off support on rumors that Iran would retaliate soon for an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier in the week.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures fell to 108-05.5 low after a poorly received 10Y auction re-open tailed 3.3bp (largest since Dec'22: 4.560% high yield vs. 4.527% WI; bid-to-cover falls to 2.34x vs. 2.51x prior), rebounds to 108-14.5 on the latest "missile strike" headline.
  • Futures remain weak in the lead up to the March FOMC minutes release at the top of the hour. Technical support at 108-06+ (2.236 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing) followed by 108-00 (Round number support).
  • Projected rate cut pricing remains well off morning levels: May 2024 at -2.6% vs. -4.7% earlier w/ cumulative -.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -17.2% vs -55.1% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -5bp vs -14.9bp at 5.279%. July'24 cumulative at -12.1bp vs. -24.4bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.7bp vs. -41.2bp.
181 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasury futures bounce off post-10Y auction lows after Bbg headline: "US SEES MISSILE STRIKE ON ISRAEL BY IRAN, PROXIES AS IMMINENT".
  • Carry-over from late last Thursday when Tsys surged on heavy risk-off support on rumors that Iran would retaliate soon for an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria earlier in the week.
  • Jun'24 10Y futures fell to 108-05.5 low after a poorly received 10Y auction re-open tailed 3.3bp (largest since Dec'22: 4.560% high yield vs. 4.527% WI; bid-to-cover falls to 2.34x vs. 2.51x prior), rebounds to 108-14.5 on the latest "missile strike" headline.
  • Futures remain weak in the lead up to the March FOMC minutes release at the top of the hour. Technical support at 108-06+ (2.236 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing) followed by 108-00 (Round number support).
  • Projected rate cut pricing remains well off morning levels: May 2024 at -2.6% vs. -4.7% earlier w/ cumulative -.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -17.2% vs -55.1% earlier w/ cumulative rate cut -5bp vs -14.9bp at 5.279%. July'24 cumulative at -12.1bp vs. -24.4bp, Sep'24 cumulative -22.7bp vs. -41.2bp.