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Tsys Pared Gains Ahead Early Close

US TSYS SUMMARY

Futures pared into the early session close -- late chop on inside range session and two-way positioning, month-end flows. Decent volumes: TYU just over 1M. Sep took lead quarterly position while late hour Jun/Sep rolling continued. Large FVU Block earlier (16,036 FVU 123-25.25) helped start the rebound off lower levels about an hour after the open. Yield curves running mixed w/short durations flatter.

Early mixed data but largely leans positive in terms of the recovery in April - and core prices provide a little more ammo for inflation hawks:

  • Personal income beats (though downward revision to March); personal spending in line (with upward revision).
  • Meanwhile Wholesale Inventories +0.8% M/M beats expectations (of 0.7%), retail inventories on the weak side (-1.6% vs -1.2% exp). And advance goods trade balance shows a slightly smaller deficit than expected (-85.2B vs -92.0B survey), first time the gap narrowed this year.
Meanwhile, Chicago Business Barometer rose to 75.2 in May, outpacing market expectations of a decline to 69.0


  • This is the highest level since Nov 1973 and the third consecutive increase. May's increase was led by a sharp rise of New Orders (80.0) to the strongest reading since Dec 1983 and Order Backlogs (80.7) which surged to a 70-year high.
By the bell, the 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.1426%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 0.7995%, 10-Yr is down 1.2bps at 1.5943%, and 30-Yr is down 1.1bps at 2.2717%.
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