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US TSYS: Tsys Reversing Thu's Post-7Y Auction Rally, EGBs Lower, Crude Higher

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries reverse early overnight gains and continue to extend late overnight lows -- unwinding a fair portion of Thursday's post-7Y note auction rally. Weaker EGBs as Europe returns from extended Christmas holiday and higher crude prices contributing factors (WTI +0.61 at 70.23).
  • The Mar'25 10y contract tapped 108-22.5 high during Asia hours has retreated to 108-13.5 (-7.5)  low recently, rather decent volume (TYH5 just over 200k).
  • Curves resume steepening, 2s10s +2.017 at 27.046, 5s30s +1.494 at 35.011; 10Y yield climbed to 4.6152% high  (+.0325) vs. 4.5686% low overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly weaker vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 at -12.2bp (-13.1bp), May'25 steady at -17.2bp, Jun'25 steady at -25.5bp.
  • Data on tap this morning: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.
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  • Treasuries reverse early overnight gains and continue to extend late overnight lows -- unwinding a fair portion of Thursday's post-7Y note auction rally. Weaker EGBs as Europe returns from extended Christmas holiday and higher crude prices contributing factors (WTI +0.61 at 70.23).
  • The Mar'25 10y contract tapped 108-22.5 high during Asia hours has retreated to 108-13.5 (-7.5)  low recently, rather decent volume (TYH5 just over 200k).
  • Curves resume steepening, 2s10s +2.017 at 27.046, 5s30s +1.494 at 35.011; 10Y yield climbed to 4.6152% high  (+.0325) vs. 4.5686% low overnight.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to mildly weaker vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 at -12.2bp (-13.1bp), May'25 steady at -17.2bp, Jun'25 steady at -25.5bp.
  • Data on tap this morning: Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$101.3B, -$98.3B prior rev), Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.1%) and Retail Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.3%) at 0830ET.