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Tsys Under Pressure Ahead Thursday PPI, Retail Sales

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures extended lows in late NY trade, Jun'23 10Y futures through yesterday's low of 111-02.5 to 110-29 (-8.5), focus on technical support at 110-21 (Low Mar 4). Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.1957%, curves near steady to late Tuesday levels, 2s10s +.317 at -43.443.
  • No particular headline driver, limited data on the day: MBA Mortgage Applications at 7.1% vs. 9.7% prior. Carryover weakness after Tuesday's higher than hoped for CPI inflation data in the lead up to Thursday's PPI and Retail sales
  • Projected rate cut pricing over the next three meetings evaporating: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -0.8% w/ cumulative of -0.02bp at 5.328%; May 2024 at -12.4% vs. -14.5% late Tuesday w/ cumulative -3.3bp at 5.297%; June 2024 -59.5% vs. -63% late Tuesday w/ cumulative cut -18.2bp at 5.148%. July'24 cumulative -31.2bp at 4.993%.
  • Treasury futures pared losses briefly (USM4 120-17, -7 vs. 120-04 low) after $22B 30Y auction (912810TX6) re-open stops through for the fourth consecutive time: 4.331% high yield vs. 4.352% WI; 2.47x bid-to-cover vs. 2.40x in the prior month. Indirect take-up 69.29% vs. 70.70% prior; direct bidder take-up climbs to 16.77% vs. 14.49% prior; primary dealer take-up 13.93% vs. 14.52%.
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