TTF Boosted by Supply Risk from US LNG Terminal Outages

TTF extended gains up towards the high from yesterday before easing back slightly with LNG supply risks weighed with returning Norwegian pipeline supplies.

• European LNG imports are holding steady below last years levels but seasonal LNG terminal outages in the US could be a risk to future supplies.
• Feedgas intake into Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG terminal has dropped 0.8bcf/d on the day to its lowest level since Aug. 21, according to Bloomberg. The drop in supply adds to the halt to Cove Point flows yesterday with the start of an expected four week seasonal maintenance. Total natural gas delivery flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated down at 11.65bcf/d from 13.3bcf/d on 19 Sep.
• Norwegian gas facilities and fields are gradually returning but unavailability has been revised up slightly to further restrict pipeline flows to Europe.
• Upside was limited from signs that industrial action at Chevron’s Australian LNG facilities could come to an end soon after Chevron accepted a proposal suggested by the Fair Work Commission.
• Time spreads are drifting lower this week with Q1 2024 - Oct23 down to 11.4€/MWh and Win24-Win23 down to 5.85€/MWh.
  • TTF OCT 23 up 2.4% at 38.19€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 down -0.1% at 46.51€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 48.29€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down -0.7% at 52.35€/MWh