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TTF Continues Decline Amid Warmer Weather Forecast for Next Week

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month yesterday extended the recent bearish trend to the lowest since Oct 9 and the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Strong near term supplies from Norway and LNG imports are helping to offset the cooler weather in Europe this week before temperatures warm up next week. Storage remains well above normal despite stronger than normal withdrawals in recent days.

    • TTF JAN 24 down -2.2% at 40.39€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.2% at 40.59€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2% at 39.96€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.6% at 44.09€/MWh
  • Below normal temperatures in NW and central Europe expected until the weekend but are forecast to warm back above normal into next week.
  • European LNG sendout was up again to 477mcm/d on Nov 28 compared to an average for the previous week of 401mcm/d.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today back up to 352.9mcm/d with the return of Aasta Hansteen and Troll from short term outages.
  • European natural gas storage is down to 96.51% full on Nov 28 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 85.6% with greater than normal net withdrawal rates.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 66.0mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday high up at 375k.
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