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TTF Curve Contango Strengthens Amid Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF spreads are this week extending gains to new highs as upside for coming seasons is supported by supply risks and uncertainty over winter weather.

  • A warm start to the storage injections season could help to ease some of the pressure on prices for the coming winter. The most recent month ahead weather forecast from ECMWF and GFS for NW Europe follows the seasonal trend lower but is holding above the 30 year normal until mid October.
  • The Q1 2024 - Oct23 spread rallied to a new high yesterday at 19.5€/MWh also driven by the easing near term prices on optimism of reduced LNG supply risks.
  • The Win24-Win23 spread yesterday traded above the highs seen in late July up at 7.9€/MWh with new global LNG supplies not expected until late 2025 and beyond to help ease tight supply risks. The spreads have just eased back from the highs so far today.
    • TTF OCT 23 up 2.7% at 31.91€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 1.2% at 46€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.7% at 49.5€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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