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Free AccessTTF Curve Contango Strengthens Amid Supply Risks
TTF spreads are this week extending gains to new highs as upside for coming seasons is supported by supply risks and uncertainty over winter weather.
- A warm start to the storage injections season could help to ease some of the pressure on prices for the coming winter. The most recent month ahead weather forecast from ECMWF and GFS for NW Europe follows the seasonal trend lower but is holding above the 30 year normal until mid October.
- The Q1 2024 - Oct23 spread rallied to a new high yesterday at 19.5€/MWh also driven by the easing near term prices on optimism of reduced LNG supply risks.
- The Win24-Win23 spread yesterday traded above the highs seen in late July up at 7.9€/MWh with new global LNG supplies not expected until late 2025 and beyond to help ease tight supply risks. The spreads have just eased back from the highs so far today.
- TTF OCT 23 up 2.7% at 31.91€/MWh
- TTF WIN 23 up 1.2% at 46€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 up 0.7% at 49.5€/MWh
Source: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.