Free Trial

TTF Decline Pauses Amid Some Qatar Shipment Delays

NATURAL GAS

The decline in front month TTF has paused this week after falling to the lowest since early August of 26.6€/MWh on Jan 22. Warm weather, ample supplies and healthy storage levels are set against some delayed LNG arrivals due to Red Sea diversions.

    • TTF FEB 24 up 1.2% at 27.55€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.2% at 28.65€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.4% at 33.35€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period although could trend back towards normal after the first few days of February.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly lower with nominations for 344.5mcm/d today amid a planned outage at Karsto until Jan 26.
  • European natural gas storage is down to 73.93% full on Jan 22 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 62.65% with net withdrawals below normal this week.
  • European LNG sendout has been holding around 360mcm/d since Jan 19 and well below the levels seen in the previous couple of years at this time of year. Qatar is delaying some LNG shipments to Europe as supply is reshuffled to meet contractual obligations due to the longer journey times from avoiding the Red Sea route according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at 35.9mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was yesterday at 273k.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.