TTF Down Amid Mild Weather and with Gaza Invasion on Hold

TTF markets open lower today with high storage levels and little sign of below normal temperatures in Europe offsetting supply concerns while near term fundamentals remain largely unchanged.

• TTF NOV 23 down -4.9% at 48.62€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.7% at 55.3€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.5% at 53.5€/MWh
• The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe until the end of the month although could drift back towards normal in the first week of November.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 306.2mcm/d but could rise tomorrow with the expected return of an Oseberg outage on 24 Oct.
• Small injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.44% full on 21 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.85%.
• Total European LNG sendout averaged just around 311mcm/d in the week to 21 Oct compared to around 370mcm/d for the same period last year.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are slightly lower at 41.8mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today down at 59.4mcm/d today.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were just slightly lower at 280k contracts on Friday.