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TTF Edges Back Up after Correction Yesterday

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month opens slightly higher today after seeing nearly a 7% pull back yesterday partly correcting a 13€/MWh rally in the previous couple of days. The market is assessing the impact on supply risks due to the Middle East tensions, the potential sabotage of the Baltic pipeline, planned Australia LNG facility strikes while cooler weather is forecast for much of Europe next week.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 1.4% at 46.72€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 1.1% at 51.42€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.8% at 49.75€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe falling slightly below normal over the weekend.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 326.6mcm/d with capacity reductions at Troll and Kvitebjorn due to ease in the coming days to bring total outages down to just 16.5mcm/d by 14 Oct according to Gassco.
  • European natural gas storage is up to 97.18% full on 10 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.98% amid near normal injection rates in the last week.
  • LNG net import flows are estimate at 357.8mcm/d on 10 Oct according to Bloomberg after rising above the recent average of around 295mcm/d to 350mcm/d the previous day.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated up to 62.15mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday dipped lower but remain quite high 308k contracts.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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