TTF Edges Down From Weekly High Yesterday

TTF front month has opened slightly lower after seeing gains in the last couple of days with extended maintenance at Norway’s Troll and low LNG supplies offsetting the impact of high storage levels and low industrial demand.

• TTF SEP 23 down -1.5% at 30.03€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.5% at 45.01€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.4% at 47.7€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly higher today 312.3mcm/d. Troll added another three days of works to the initial planned maintenance extending to 16 August while additional maintenance has been extended until 6 Aug and the exact duration remains uncertain according to Gassco.
• LNG sendout to Europe is still below levels seen this time last year having averaged just over 300mcm/d in the last week and down from around 333mcm/d in July. Competition for LNG supplies remains an additional risk amid falling supplies into Europe, although the strength in European gas prices has driven the front month JKM-TTF spread down from about +2.9$/mmbtu last week back to +1$/bbl.
• Total European gas in store was still above the five year range at 86.31% full on a 2 Aug according to GIE data despite injection rates falling back below normal in the last couple of days. The five year average for this time of year is 71.8%.
• The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with temperatures in NW and central Europe recovering back above normal next week while southern Europe holds above normal temperatures.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are unchanged today at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still strong at 62.1mcm/d.