TTF Edges Higher

TTF gas markets are edging higher today as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, while the front month is on track to be stable on the week as ongoing supply risks are weighed against bearish short-term fundamentals including mild weather and high gas inventories.

• TTF NOV 23 up 0.6% at 51.1€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.2% at 55.5€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.1% at 53.25€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast is stable on the day with temperatures above the seasonal average until 3 November before falling below the norm for three days before rising back above
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up at slightly up at 316.2mcm/d. Curbs at Oseberg are still ongoing, while cuts at Troll were scheduled to end today.
• Gas flows via Mazara to Italy stood at 62.66mcm/d today.
• European gas storage levels stood at 98.71% full on 25 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%.
• LNG flows to North West Europe were slightly down to 230.75mcm/d on 25 October, compared from 252.87% the day prior.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday declined down to 231.8k.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024.
• The US LNG netback to Europe is currently $12.24/MMBtu for December, up from $12.12/MMBtu. The US LNG netback to Asia is currently $13.46/MMBtu for December, up from $13.13/MMBtu.
  • JKM Nov 23 up 1.3% at 17.95$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 2.18$/mmbtu