TTF Edges Higher After Almost €10 Decline in Previous Week

Front month TTF edges higher after seeing a fall from a high of 54.3€/MWh on 30 Oct to a low of around 44.6€/MWh over the last week. Healthy near term supplies and low demand due to the warm start to winter are weighing on prices but the market remains sensitive to any unplanned supply disruptions.

• TTF DEC 23 up 0.8% at 45.19€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.7% at 47.2€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.4% at 45.8€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 49.5€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast still shows little sign of cold weather with at or slightly above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the two week outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are steady today at 331.3mcm/d but could dip again into the weekend with a 20.5mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are up to 99.63% full on 5 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.0% as small injections continue despite the traditional start to the withdrawal season.
• European LNG sendout dropped slightly back to 347mcm/d on 5 Nov are reaching the highest since June at 392mcm/d on 3 Nov.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are still below the recent average at 45.6mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday near normal at 234k.