TTF Edges Higher As LNG Sendout the Lowest Since 2021

TTF front month is edging higher but within Friday’s trading range supported by falling LNG volumes while Norway works ease and natural gas storage levels edge up towards the EU 90% pre winter target level.

• TTF SEP 23 up 2.3% at 29.51€/MWh
• LNG sendout to Europe is the lowest since 2021 with flows into NW Europe still below volumes seen this time last year and with a drop in supply to Italy this month according to data via Bloomberg. Global competition for LNG supplies provides upside pressure with near term US LNG exports more profitable to Asia than Europe.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back up to 327.7mcm/d as capacity reductions at Troll eased and works ended at Greater Britannia. Flows have recovered from lows around 304mcm/d seen last week but below levels up to 340mcm/d from the end of July.
• Total European gas in store was up to 87.1% full on a 5 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year is 72.6%.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe and the Nordic are expected to gradually increase this week back above normal at the end of the week as wind generation drops during the week. Above normal temperatures remain in southern Europe.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady today at 42mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are slightly higher up to 65.8mcm/d.