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TTF Edges Higher Boosted by Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

TTF markets edge higher with supply risks set against relatively unchanged near term market fundamentals with high storage levels and still little sign of below normal temperatures for most of Europe.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 3.3% at 51.83€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2.8% at 58.35€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 3.4% at 56.6€/MWh
  • Above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe in the coming week are expected to gradually drift back towards normal in the second week of the forecast and into the start of November. Nordic region will however remain colder than normal.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back up to 313.3mcm/d with the easing of capacity reductions at Oseberg. Total capacity outages are today 31.9mcm/d and expected to fall to 14.9mcm/d into next week.
  • European natural gas storage edged just slightly higher yesterday up to 98.14% full on 18 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 89.6%.
  • Total European LNG sendout was slightly lower on the day at 306mcm/d on 18 Oct according to Bloomberg and roughly in line with the average seen so far this month.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated at 72.9mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes are still strong at 300k contracts yesterday.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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