TTF Edges Higher To Hold Above Recent Range Lows

TTF front month is edging higher this morning to hold above the lows of around 31.6€/MWh seen in the last couple of weeks. Tight supply amid Norway maintenance and lower LNG imports has combined with changing weather to drive market volatility.

• TTF AUG 23 up 3.1% at 33.34€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2.5% at 52.11€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.4% at 52.28€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast for NW and central Europe suggests temperatures will continue to rise to a peak over this weekend and early next week before drifting back down towards normal next week.
• LNG sendout to Europe has recovered from a low of just under 300mcm/d on 2 July back up to 336mcm/d on 5 July but is still just below levels seen this time last year.
• Pipeline imports from Norway have recovered from lows of below 220mcm/d in June back to 252.2mcm/d today with the main current outages expected to continue into next week.
• Gas in store was up to 78.63% full on 5 July according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 63.4% and still on track to refill despite below normal injection rates.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today up to 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 61.7mcm/d.