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TTF Edges Higher With Forecast of Warm Start to July

NATURAL GAS

European TTF front month is edging higher with support from a forecast of a warm start to July. Storage remains on track to refill this summer and LNG import flows remain just above last year’s levels despite a drop this week. Total European LNG sendout is down to around 350mcm/d from over 400mcm/d in the middle of June.

  • The Q1 2024 premium over Q3 2023 is drifting slightly lower to 18.5€/MWh after seeing a rally last week up to around 19.6€/MWh. Tight market risks for the heating season are supporting winter prices with high end of summer storage levels unlikely to be enough to cover risks from cold weather, Asian LNG competition and or increased industrial demand.
    • TTF JUL 23 up 1.2% at 32.35€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 down -1.8% at 48.4€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.7% at 47.88€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -2.4% at 49.43€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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