TTF Edges Higher With Support From Cooler Forecast into Jan

Front month TTF is edging higher today having bounced in the wide 32.1€/MWh to 37.6€/MWh range since Dec 11. LNG supply risks from Red Sea disruption have eased slightly while gas in store remains well above normal but cooling temperatures during the first week of January are supportive.

• TTF FEB 24 up 1% at 34€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1% at 33.78€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 0.5% at 38.49€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are still expected to cool over the coming week back towards or even slightly below normal from around Jan 5.
• European natural gas storage is holding well above normal at 86.98% full on Dec 27 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 74.7% with below normal withdrawals throughout much of December.
• European LNG sendout edged back up to 364mcm/d on Dec 27 compared to an average of nearly 404mcm/d so far in Dec.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies into Europe remain strong and are today nominated slightly higher than yesterday up at 350.7mcm/d.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 55.0mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were still below normal at 210k yesterday.