TTF Edges Up from New Low as Spreads Show Risk to Spot LNG Flows

Front month TTF is edging back up from another recent low as strong LNG imports continue to cover for the missing Norwegian imports during the current maintenance period. Weak European prices and relatively stronger Asia prices could be a risk to LNG supplies and support the diversion of spot cargoes to Asia.

• The market has lost all the previous gains seen due to the disruption to Hammerfest LNG exports currently expected until 8 June which highlighted the risk of the European dependency on LNG imports.
• European LNG net import flows have averaged around 436mcm/d over the last week and roughly in line with the average seen during May but down from the record levels seen in April.
• Imports from Norway are today at 231mcm/d due to ongoing maintenance at numerous fields and processing plants which is expected to continue into mid June.
• Temperatures in central and NW Europe are expected to increase over the coming week and to stay above normal throughout the two week forecast. German solar output is expected to remain high over this weekend.
• European gas storage is up to 68.87% full on 31 May according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 51.15% with injection rates at about 85% of normal during May.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.6mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are back up to 67.4mcm/d after lower flows since 22 May due to scheduled works.
  • TTF JUL 23 up 2.5% at 23.67€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 2% at 41.35€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 0.3% at 41.8€/MWh