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TTF Extends Decline, Lowest Since Start of Israel-Hamas Conflict

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month falls again after the decline yesterday to the lowest since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict with muted demand, healthy near term supply and high storage helping to ease winter supply risks.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -2% at 41.93€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.1% at 42.93€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.3% at 42€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to remain slightly below normal into the start of December before warmer weather pushes temperatures back above normal into next week.
  • European LNG sendout was back up again to 470.5mcm/d on Nov 27 compared to an average of 404mcm/d so far in November and 325mcm/d seen in October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down slightly to 341mcm/d amid small outages at Aasta Hansteen and Troll today.
  • European natural gas storage is down to 96.99% full on Nov 27 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 85.9% as net withdrawal rates pick up higher than normal.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 65.9mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up to 281k.

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